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I’ve been trying my best to stick to science and not politics but as a public health professional and an American it makes me ill to see @POTUS cutting funding to @WHO at any time but especially in a pandemic
It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show…
For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of th…
So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US
3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.
Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-…
2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, …
But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.
If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense…
If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.
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